Wallet Intelligence

Polygolem wallet intelligence is a read-only research surface for public wallet and market activity. It produces reproducible statistical candidates, not trading advice and not misconduct findings.

What V1 means

V1 uses pkg/intel DTOs and pure scoring helpers with explicit formula versions:

Formula	Use
`wallet_score_v1`	Wallet dossier score and dossier alerts.
`shrinkage_win_rate_v1`	Conservative win-rate estimate with a neutral prior.

The neutral prior is 10 wins over 20 bets, representing a 50% baseline when no caller-provided baseline exists.

Safety language

Use candidate language in UIs, reports, and automation:

say Wallet Intelligence Signal;
say candidate, potential, source-backed, or partial;
do not say insider proof, fraud finding, manipulation finding, or trade recommendation.

A high score should expose formula version, source rows, raw metrics, reasons, and disclaimers. It should not assert intent.

CLI commands

# Build a public wallet dossier
polygolem intel wallet 0xwallet --limit 25 --json

# List Data-API-ranked wallet intelligence rows
polygolem intel leaderboard --limit 20 --json

# Emit user-scoped dossier alerts above a threshold
polygolem intel alerts --user 0xwallet --min-score 75 --json

# Summarize holder/trade/open-interest flow for a market or token
polygolem intel market-flow <market-or-token-id> --limit 50 --json

All commands are read-only. They use public Polymarket data adapters and do not require POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY.

Source authority and conflicts

For wallet dossiers, V1 treats Data API closed-position rows as authoritative for realized PnL and win/loss counts. If other Polygolem source adapters disagree with a derived metric, the dossier must expose a conflict instead of silently choosing a blended truth.

Dossier status	Meaning
`complete`	Source adapters produced a qualified result.
`partial`	Some source rows were unavailable or incomplete.
`conflicted`	Source adapters disagree on a derived wallet metric.

What is deliberately out of scope

No global live trade-tape alerts in V1.
No funding-cluster claims until Polygolem owns reproducible Polygon transfer or indexer evidence for them.
No misconduct/fraud labels.
No automatic trading decisions.

Go SDK sketch

score := intel.ScoreWallet(intel.ScoreInput{
    Wallet:     "0xwallet",
    Wins:       12,
    Bets:       20,
    Volume:     1200,
    RealizedPnL: 140,
    SourceRows: 20,
})
_ = score.FormulaVersion // wallet_score_v1

Network-backed dossier assembly is under internal/intel; stable DTOs and pure scoring contracts live under pkg/intel.